Bitcoin is poised to achieve a rare milestone, potentially marking three consecutive months of positive returns. The cryptocurrency has recorded gains in July, August, and September. This occurrence has only been documented once before in Bitcoin’s history, highlighting its significance in the market’s performance.
Bitcoin rose 4.8% in July and then jumped 25.2% in August. September has also remained positive, with Bitcoin trading around $86,140, up 10.9% at the time of the analysis. The only previous three-month winning streak happened in 2012. In 2012, Bitcoin gained 41.0% in July, 6.4% in August and 24.4% in September. CoinDesk’s analysis of daily price data identified the 2012 period as the only previous example. Bitcoin then exploded higher after the 2012 October low. From the October 2012 low, Bitcoin began a 165-day rally that took its price to around $230 by April 2013. That represented a gain of more than 2,000%, according to CoinDesk’s analysis of daily price data.
Because a similar pattern has appeared only once before, that makes the current three-month run unusual. Bitcoin gained strongly in July and August. CoinDesk provided the price and monthly performance data.
Bitcoin market is different now
A 2,000% rally is not realistic to assume today. Bitcoin’s market is very different from 2012. Back then, Bitcoin was a thinly traded asset worth around $10, meaning a relatively small number of buyers could move the market sharply. These markets allow investors to manage risk and take different types of positions at a much larger scale than was possible in 2012. He said the more than 2,000% rally after the 2012 sequence should not be treated as a reasonable expectation for 2026. Subburaj said Bitcoin’s 2012 rally happened when a relatively small group of buyers could significantly move the market. In 2026, the key issue is whether large pools of institutional capital continue allocating money to Bitcoin after some of the easier gains have already happened, he said.
Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj said the market structure has fundamentally changed. “Bitcoin now belongs to a global asset class with institutional ownership,” Subburaj said, as noted by CoinDesk. The Bitcoin market now has ETFs and much deeper derivatives trading. He pointed to spot ETFs as a regulated investment channel and derivatives markets as another major change. The bigger question now is whether large investors keep buying Bitcoin .
Today, Bitcoin is part of a multi-trillion-dollar market with much larger trading volumes and institutional participation. Today’s market includes spot Bitcoin ETFs, futures, options and basis trades, along with trading across many venues.
But 2012 does not mean Bitcoin will repeat the same move in 2026. Bitcoin has been trading since at least late 2010, but this exact three-month pattern has appeared only once before. The previous example is too limited to prove that Bitcoin will fall in October and then enter another huge rally. The sample is too small to draw a reliable conclusion about what happens next.
