External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned of a possible “4F” global crisis during his visit to the United States. The term does not refer to a new war or diplomatic group. Instead, Jaishankar was talking about a chain of problems that can spread from conflicts to food, fuel and family budgets, with developing countries likely to feel the impact first.
Jaishankar described the situation at the UN General Assembly as a “4F crisis” that is hitting the Global South particularly hard. The answer is food, fuel, fertiliser and finance. Farmers facing higher costs may then have to spend more to grow crops. At the same time, countries that depend on imported food can end up paying more for grain and other essentials. These higher costs can eventually reach consumers through higher food prices. Finance may seem less connected to food and fuel, but it can determine how well a country deals with the other three problems. Governments need money to import food and energy, support farmers and build infrastructure. But countries already struggling with high borrowing costs or debt have less money available when prices suddenly rise or supplies are disrupted. This is why financial stability becomes important during a global crisis. If a country cannot afford to pay for essential imports, a disruption in food, fuel or fertiliser supplies can become much more serious.
In other words, the “4F crisis” is about how a crisis in one part of the world can travel through global supply chains and eventually affect farmers, businesses and household budgets elsewhere. The central idea behind the 4F crisis is that food, fuel, fertiliser and finance cannot be treated as completely separate issues. A disruption in one can quickly put pressure on the others.
A country may have enough food today, for example, but still face problems if it cannot afford fertiliser for the next farming season or if conflict blocks the energy and shipping routes needed to move essential supplies.
