This year’s powerful El Nino weather pattern could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February as it turbocharges global temperatures, according to projections published on Wednesday.
Record Heat Event Expected to Impact Developing Countries
A significant warming phenomenon, announced in June, is projected to peak later this year, potentially becoming the strongest on record. This event is expected to exacerbate the impacts of human-induced climate change, particularly in developing nations, which the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago identifies as the most vulnerable to heat-related consequences during the June to February period.
Researchers from the Climate Impact Lab emphasize that their projections can aid governments and humanitarian organizations in implementing preventive measures. These measures include issuing heat warnings, establishing cooling centers, and setting up hydration stations to protect affected populations.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, stated, “This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.”
The researchers projected that global land temperatures will be 1.2C above normal in the coming months due in large part to El Nino, leading to 44 percent more extremely hot days than in a regular year. For the projections, the Climate Impact Lab used research on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality in 24,378 regions, taking local climate and vulnerability into account. They then combined those findings with long-range temperature forecasts to estimate excess deaths that could result from El Nino compared with the 1996-2025 average.
