The Old Farmer’s Almanac has shared its long-range weather outlook for October . It gives a region-by-region view of what weather the US may see this month.
The Almanac claims about 80 percent accuracy for seasonal temperature and rainfall trends. For October 2026, the Almanac expects much of the eastern US to have cooler-than-normal weather. However, this figure is self-reported and does not mean the forecast will be accurate every day.
The publication says its forecasts use solar science, climatology and meteorology. It also looks at climate data and major weather patterns such as El Nino .
“The onset of an El Nino certainly plays a role in developing our long-range weather forecasts,” Old Farmer’s Almanac senior editor Tim Goodwin told Newsweek previously. “When evidence pointed to an El Nino developing during the warm season and expected to continue through this winter, we had to account for that in our forecasting as it can impact weather patterns across the globe, including North America.”
Northeast: According to the Almanac, sunny and cool weather will start the month from October 1 to 10. Rain is expected from October 11. Scattered showers are forecast from October 9. Appalachians: Sunny, cool weather is forecast during the first 10 days. Florida: Scattered showers and mild weather are expected through October 8. A cooler, sunny stretch follows between October 9 and 13. Deep South: Warm weather and scattered showers are expected through October 11. Ohio Valley: Sunny skies are forecast early, with cool weather turning warmer through October 8. Isolated showers and cooler weather could follow between October 9 and 13. Scattered showers are predicted from October 7. The east sees sunny and cool weather, while the west sees showers and milder weather through October 6. Rainy periods arrive and temperatures turn warmer through October 10. Texas-Oklahoma: Rainy stretches are forecast across northern parts through October 9. High Plains: A few showers and chilly weather are expected through October 8. Rain and snow showers move in from October 9. Desert Southwest: The Almanac says October 1 to 4 will have some showers in the east and sunshine in the west, with warmth overall. October 5 to 10 could be sunny, with warm weather in the east but cooler weather in the west. Pacific Northwest: The month begins rainy and chilly from October 1 to 3. Sunny, cool weather prevails from October 4 to 7. Pacific Southwest: Isolated showers are followed by sunshine from October 1 to 9. Hawaii: Showery, warm weather is expected from October 1 to 5.
A stretch of rain and snow is forecast from October 7 to 17, along with “quite chilly” temperatures. “Super El Nino” is not an official NOAA term. As per the Almanac, this is a long-range forecast. It looks at overall weather patterns, not the weather for each day. It divides the US into different regions and predicts whether temperatures and rainfall will be above or below normal. Atlantic Corridor: The month starts sunny and cool. Southeast: Periods of rain are expected at the start. Sunnier weather develops later in the first half of October. Lower Lakes: The month begins sunny and cool. Upper Midwest: As per the Almanac, the region starts split. Heartland: Sunny weather is expected at the start. A few thunderstorms could hit southern areas as temperatures turn warmer. Intermountain: Rainy periods and chilly weather are set to start the month. Alaska: Periods of rain and snow are forecast in the opening days, along with cold weather. El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that starts in the Pacific Ocean and can affect weather around the world. La Niña is the cooler phase of this pattern. It is commonly used to describe an unusually strong El Ninoevent.
