President Trump’s effort to squeeze Iran into submission will depend heavily on curbing one of the country’s biggest economic lifelines: Dubai.
“When you look at Iranian sanctions evasion and Iran’s ability to earn money from illicit oil sales, Dubai is a major hub for illicit financial flows,” said former U.S. sanctions official Max Meizlish, who is now a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The U.A.E. taking action against direct trade and financial activity is important but the reality is that a great deal of indirect activity flows through banks in Dubai supporting Iran’s shadow-banking and illicit-financing operations.” Cutting off Iran would also require Emirati authorities to crack down much more aggressively on opaque financial and trading activity, which could hurt Dubai’s role as a freewheeling global hub for commerce, capital and re-exports.
Before the war, the U.A.E. was Iran’s largest source of imports ahead of China, supplying more than 30% of the country’s total—about $21 billion worth—in 2024, according to the World Trade Organization.
