DUBAI—Iran’s oil export revenue is drying up as a U.S. naval blockade strangles shipments from the Persian Gulf and offshore stockpiles feeding China dwindle, putting more pressure on Tehran’s battered economy.
Meanwhile, the volume of Iranian crude already on vessels outside the blockade—a trove that is still generating revenue for Tehran—has fallen to around 29 million barrels from around 90 million barrels in mid-July and could run out next month, according to Kpler. Iraq has offered discounts of nearly $30 a barrel on some grades. Brent crude was trading at around $97 a barrel Monday. Iran could move no more than 40,000 barrels a day via trucks, a sliver of its prewar exports of close to 2 million barrels a day, Falakshahi said. By August, loadings had fallen by about two-thirds from early 2026, Kpler estimates. The Iranian export squeeze is deepening the economic crisis in a country where official inflation is running at more than 80% year-over-year. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a 5.4% economic contraction this year, the country’s worst since the 1980s.
In some cases, Iranian oil now costs refiners more than competing supplies due to its relative scarcity, they said.
Gulf oil officials, who run checks to see what their customers are buying before setting the monthly price for their oil, said they have found few Iranian cargoes changing hands. “Now, much will depend on the degree of economic pain that the Iranian regime is willing to bear to achieve its military and geopolitical objectives,” said Hamad Hussain, an economist at Capital Economics. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted the squeeze Friday with a post on X accompanied by a “Jaws”-style graphic of a shark tearing into a chart of Iran’s falling oil exports and currency. Some Chinese buyers are turning to Saudi, Iraqi and United Arab Emirates crude, Gulf energy officials said.
Six months into the war, the oil squeeze is depriving Tehran of its main source of foreign currency as the value of the Iranian rial plunges, inflation soars and the economy slides deeper into crisis. Overland routes offer little relief. It is only possible to move small amounts of oil by truck or rail compared with seaborne exports and Iran mostly lacks wagons designed for crude or refined products. The pressure extends to petrochemicals. The sector, Iran’s second-largest source of foreign-currency earnings after oil, also depends heavily on seaborne exports.
