The world is currently witnessing multiple conflicts across the Middle East, Europe, South Asia and East Asia, with the combined impact extending beyond the immediate war zones to energy supplies, food security, trade and the global economy.
The Middle East has become a vast conflict zone spanning around 4.5 million square kilometres, with Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza directly affected by hostilities. Ukraine, with an area of around 600,000 square kilometres, remains within the range of air and drone attacks. A further 200,000 to 300,000 square kilometres of western Russia, including Moscow, Kursk, Belgorod and parts of the Black Sea, is witnessing daily missile and drone attacks. In South Asia, the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is facing a war-like situation across an area of around 300,000 square kilometres. In East Asia, tensions have increased across an estimated 300,000 to 400,000 square kilometres covering the Korean Peninsula and the Sea of Japan. The analysis said the combined area across the different fronts where missiles are falling, or could fall, is approximately 6 million square kilometres. This is equivalent to an area that could accommodate 270 countries the size of Israel. Wars are causing an annual loss of around $17 trillion to the global economy, according to an estimate cited in the analysis. China’s annual GDP is approximately $18 trillion, meaning the estimated economic damage from war and violence is close to the country’s total annual economic output. The world is spending around Rs 460 million every minute on preparations for war, while countries are spending nearly $3 trillion on weapons alone. The analysis estimated that this amounts to an annual cost of around Rs 29,000 per person worldwide. More than 300,000 people are also missing, leaving their families without information about whether they are alive or dead.
As a result, the freight cost of a cargo container, previously around $1,500, has risen above $5,000 on several routes. Because of wars, with more than 110 million people forced to leave their homes, the analysis said one in every 70 people worldwide has been displaced.
The analysis said the Russia-Ukraine war is also expanding in eastern Europe. The Persian Gulf, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are also part of the wider area of tension, particularly in locations where US warships are deployed. Iran has also threatened that forces supporting the US in the Middle East could come under its target list, raising concerns about the wider regional impact of the conflict. Following Pakistan’s air strikes in Afghanistan, the mountainous areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Waziristan have come under the threat of air attacks, artillery fire and attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). North Korea has continued to launch short-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles. A large part of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone has consequently become a missile-testing area. North Korea also fired two short-range ballistic missiles, one of which landed in the maritime area of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Japan and South Korea expressed strong anger following the launches. The economic consequences extend well beyond the countries directly involved in the conflicts. The conflicts are also affecting global energy and shipping routes. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have forced ships to travel around Africa rather than use the Suez Canal. The human cost has been equally severe. The conflicts are affecting Asia, Europe and Africa, as well as the US, while their economic and humanitarian consequences continue to spread far beyond the immediate battlefields.
In today’s episode of DNA, Rahul Sinha, Managing Editor of Zee News, conducted a detailed analysis.
Around 20 per cent of the world’s oil previously passed through the Strait of Hormuz. However, amid the conflict, only 17 ships passed through the strait during the week, compared with around 125 ships a day. Drone attacks on Russian refineries and the continuing instability in the Middle East have pushed diesel prices in Europe to as high as $210 per barrel. Higher diesel costs have increased farming and freight transport expenses by up to 25 per cent. The region is facing a daily shortfall of around 500,000 barrels, while aviation fuel stocks at major airports have fallen to their lowest level in seven years. If the war continues, air ticket prices in Europe could rise by 30 per cent. Russia and Ukraine supplied around 30 per cent of the world’s wheat and 70 per cent of its sunflower oil. Supply-chain disruptions have contributed to an average 15 to 20 per cent increase in food inflation across regions stretching from Africa to Asia.
The disruption has contributed to long queues for petrol and gas in several Asian countries. Europe is also facing the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict alongside instability in the Middle East. The disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies has also resulted in a major shortage of jet fuel in Europe. Russia is also among the world’s largest fertiliser exporters. The war and sanctions have contributed to a shortage of fertiliser in global markets, affecting agricultural output and raising concerns that grain prices could increase further in the coming years.
